🇯🇵 Japan · Housing

Housing

Rent vs buy — who wins after 25 years?

¥220,000 avg 2BR rent · Tokyo
¥75,000,000 median buy · Tokyo
PIR ≈ 22.3× Numbeo + Zillow + OECD, 2025-Q1 verified: 2026-05-07
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Rent and median price by city

5 cities, 2-bedroom average. Sources next to each card.

New York

Rent (2BR)$4,500
Median price$760,000
Per m²$13,500

Los Angeles

Rent (2BR)$3,200
Median price$880,000
Per m²$8,800

Chicago

Rent (2BR)$2,400
Median price$360,000
Per m²$3,300

Houston

Rent (2BR)$1,800
Median price$340,000
Per m²$2,100

Miami

Rent (2BR)$3,000
Median price$580,000
Per m²$5,400

Affordability vs salary

PIR (price ÷ annual income) and rent-to-income side by side.

  • Buy burden (PIR) 15.1×
  • Rent burden 66%

Tokyo example: ¥220,000 rent / ¥280,000 net salary = 79%. Median home ¥75,000,000 vs annual gross = 22.3× PIR.

What about 25 years later?

Rent vs 100% mortgage — open the simulator to plug in your numbers.

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Opportunity cost vs stability — 7 non-financial factors

Numbers don't end the comparison. Whether these values are worth it — that's your call.

  • Moving stress

    0 moves in 25 years vs N moves. Boxes, ties, time — none of it shows on a statement.

  • Rent inflation risk

    Rent rises every year. Mortgage P&I is fixed. The 25-year gap compounds.

  • Renovation freedom

    One wall, one finish. You decide it freely only in your own home.

  • Retirement housing security

    Can you pay rent after retiring? Owners at least don't have to ask.

  • Liquidity

    A house takes 6–18 months to sell. ETFs sell in one click. The gap matters in a crisis.

  • Forced savings

    If you don't spend it, you have to repay it. Helps people with weak willpower.

  • Tax incentives & subsidies

    Transfer tax, capital gains, mortgage interest deduction. Varies wildly by country.

How AI will reshape housing (10–25 years)

Two scenarios, side by side. No single answer.

The 'home loses value' view

  • Self-driving RVs & campers — home becomes mobile (Tesla / Musk)
  • Remote work normal → commute premium fades → urban premium weakens
  • 3D-printed homes (ICON, Mighty Buildings) → new build cost collapses
  • AI urban planning → modular living zones
  • Self-driving cars absorb travel · sleep · work space

The 'home gains value' view

  • AI-integrated smart home → home becomes assistant · health · productivity hub
  • Energy-independent home (solar + battery + heat pump) → asset + infrastructure
  • Continued urban density → scarce prime real estate ↑
  • Remote work creates demand for *bigger* living space
  • In an AI age, privacy & offline space become more valuable

Your call?

Pick one to see the result.